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Earthquake Probabilities for the Wasatch Front in Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming

Earthquake Probabilities for the Wasatch Front in Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming
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By: Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities

This publication presents probabilistic earthquake forecasts developed by the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities (WGUEP) for the greater Wasatch Front Region. The WGUEP developed 30-, 50-, and 100-year forecasts that include (1) combined time-dependent and time-independent probabilities of large earthquakes (M ≥ 6.75) for the five central segments of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) and two segments of the Great Salt Lake fault zone, (2) time-independent probabilities of large earthquakes on 45 less well-studied faults and fault segments, and (3) estimates of the time-independent probabilities of background earthquakes in the M 5.0-6.75 range. The forecasts are based on seismic source model, deformation model, earthquake rate model, and probability model. Results include 50-year probabilities of 43% for one or more M ≥ 6.75 earthquakes and 57% for one or more M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes occurring within the region, and 18% for one or more M ≥ 6.75 earthquakes occurring on the WFZ. Considering that the median age of Utah's citizens (29 years) is the youngest in the nation, there is a realistic chance that many Wasatch Front residents will experience a large earthquake in their lifetimes.

In addition to the comprehensive 164-page main report, appendices in this publication include a summary of moment magnitude regressions considered by the WGUEP, a comprehensive analysis of paleoseismic data for the central segments of the WFZ, and a newly compiled and processed historical and instrumental earthquake catalog for the Wasatch Front and surrounding Utah region.

Other Information:
Published: 2016
Pages: 164
Location: Utah, Idaho, Wyoming
Media Type: CD-ROM Publication

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